Probability of the Next Megathrust Earthquake Along the Nankai Trough

- Several rupture patterns are considered for the entire Nankai Trough area.
- As there is no model established to explain the diversity of the rupture patterns, the conventional time prediction model is applied to evaluate the probability of occurrence for the entire Nankai Trough as a whole.

Occurrence probability
Area: entire Nankai Trough area
Magnitude: M8 - M9 class
30-year probability of occurrence: 70%-80

Bureau of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion
[Evaluation of Earthquake Under the Bungosuido Strait on April 17, 2024 (April 18, 2024)]